Friday, January 9, 2009

OK, so thoughts on what happens after a big disaster. From all the footage I’ve seen, all the books I’ve read, and the actual events that have happened in my lifetime, I have come to a conclusion on what happens after a major tragedy. What happens is as follows:

  1. People try to downplay the event as the event happens. For example, if you listen to many of the audio recordings of people on the phone or on the radio as the event is happening, they sound calm, almost serene. There is rarely any shouting, screaming, or pandemonium. That comes
  2. afterwards, as soon as the disaster is over. Often, unnecessary precautions are taken, such as stuffing one's shirt with as much money as possible, or trying to stuff all personal belongings into a trunk.
  3. An attempt to rebuild follows, which almost always fails due to the lack of organization. This often happens in the hours following the disaster.
  4. Anarchy follows, usually with those who should be enforcing the law extenuating the confusion. In the Frisco Fire, that would have been the police and the impromptu militia looting stores and shooting innocent people.
  5. Eventually, a leader figure will emerge (the president, mayor, head of the police force, ruthless dictator, etc.) and begin to sort methodically through the confusion. This is around the time that foreign aid arrives, and slowly but surely the city and inhabitants will rebuild.

Oddly, major disasters seem to happen when people are the most confident that they either won't happen, or that they will have little or no effect on the people. Immediately after the SF Earthquake and fire, SF inhabitants were very cautious about fires. Buildings were build above and beyond the specs for earthquake-proof buildings. I distinctly remember both of my parents attaching all large pieces of furniture (e.g. bookcases, headboards, tall cabinets) to the walls with screws. The idea was that should we experience an earthquake, we wouldn't be crushed by falling bookshelves or cabinets. Rooms were carefully organized so that no one could stand under the chandelier. And we had a annually updated "emergency plan" should something happen.

Today I seriously doubt many people in the bay area have a similar plan, although most are convinced that should there be an earthquake, they will be just fine. The worst always happens to those who least expect it.